Sure his personal popularity ratings are consistently low, never even reaching the very average 50% approval amongst the American public but don’t think President Donald Trump can’t be re-elected.
That the was the focus of a talk by well known Canadian/American author, political pundit and advisor David Frum to a luncheon meeting of the Belleville Rotary Club Monday.
Frum, who enjoys summers at his Wellington area home, is currently the Senior Editor at The Atlantic. In 2001-02 he was a special advisor and speechwriter for President George W. Bush and he’s written several books and is a regular expert commentator in and on various U.S. media outlets.
His most recent book is “Trumpocracy: The Corruption of the American Republic” which is a harsh critique of the President’s ways and administration.
Frum is the son of the iconic CBC radio and television broadcaster, the late Barbara Frum.
Frum says the American people are not the American voters. Over 40% of Americans don’t vote, so low personal popularity ratings in public polls don’t show the whole story.
American voters tend to be older, rooted in communities, more conservative than the norm, and more affluent.
“Republicans always have a little advantage in Presidential elections and Americans tend to re-elect Presidents.
Those who haven’t been re-elected tend to have run into one or more of these three issues; a split in their party, a major economic downturn, or a major foreign policy blunder.”
Frum also stressed that in the privacy of the voting booth people only take two questions seriously. Those are “how am I doing” and “how is the country doing.”
“Guess what folks, the first question about “how am I doing” takes precedence over any other and the polls are showing people are feeling great about the economy and their lives. So while most don’t like the President, they are feeling good about what really matters to them which is themselves and their families.”
Frum joked that Trump had a habit of “self sabotage” and that he could rise significantly in approval ratings if he “just shut up for six to eight months”.
On another subject, Frum said Canadians have had it pretty good since the North American Free Trade Agreement was signed years ago, but that life could change for the worse if Trump’s protectionist tendencies and willingness to impose tariffs on trade partners around the world continue.
“He’s breaking up important alliances in the world and he wants monetary policy to be run to his liking and guided by politics and that could cause real problems for us.”
Frum warned that if a Democratic candidate becomes President and they control the House and Senate people shouldn’t expect a return to normalcy.
“The Democrats are still trying to figure out who they are. Will the party stay close to the centrist ways of President Obama or will it be pulled further to the left by its membership? Who knows what they’re bringing to the party?”
“The biggest challenge for us is changing old political systems. The American party system forces people to extremes.
We’re living in an era of “creative explosion.” Real people aren’t left or right. They’re busy working together and getting great things done. Political systems need to get real and get the job done!”
At the beginning of his address, Frum took time to praise the volunteers working with Quinte Search and Rescue.
“Myself and others got into some trouble while boating recently, and Quinte Search and Rescue found us and helped us out. This is a group worth supporting. Not only were they professional but they were as gracious as could be. Our thanks to them.”
David Frum proved to be a good draw. Almost 100 people, many of them guests, filled the room at the Ramada/Harbourfront in Belleville. That’s a big crowd for a mid-summer’s meeting.
